Stand by your decisions

A roadmap review, twice

Here is a short story about a roadmap review. It happens twice: once as it usually goes, and once as it could go.

What changes

The roadmap didn't change between the two meetings. What changed is that the product manager could say why the situation called for that approach.

Every transformation follows the same path

Getting from the first meeting to the second follows five stages. Most training stops at the first one.

1. TheoryYou study the framework and can explain it to a coach.
2. GapFacing a real situation, you can't apply what you could explain.
3. SimulationThe situation is recreated. You decide, make mistakes safely and get feedback.
4. PracticeYou repeat it at rising difficulty until it becomes instinct.
5. CapabilityIn the real situation, you apply the framework by instinct.

Is the gap real, or just a feeling?

Researchers reviewed 188 studies on the gap between theory and practice. They mapped it as four connected gaps that feed each other in a loop, which is why no single fix closes it.

And it shows up at work. Trainers from 150 organisations estimated how many employees apply their training on the job:

These are trainers' estimates, not direct measurements.

Under pressure it gets worse. In a study in the Journal of Neuroscience, stress pushed people from goal-directed choices into habits. That's your default kicking in right when the decision matters most.

The frameworks exist, and you've read them. The gap is in the moment: under pressure, with no feedback. That's the part a simulator closes.

Does simulation work? The research says yes

• A review of 609 studies found that simulation training produced large gains in skills and in on-the-job behaviour.
• Surgeons who practised on a simulator until they reached an expert benchmark made six times fewer errors in the real operating room.
• People who practised under realistic pressure performed better when the real pressure came, even on new tasks.

Why? Experts don't deliberate more. They recognise the situation, and that recognition is built from repetitions with feedback. Real meetings rarely give you that feedback. A simulator gives it to you on every decision.

This evidence comes from medicine, aviation, the military and workplace training. No study has yet tested a product-management simulator, so it supports the method rather than any one product.

How the decision simulator works

Take the Product Management, Cynefin Edition. You get 12 sorties. Each sortie is a real situation a product manager faces, and you're asked to decide by first reading what kind of situation it is.

At first your default will kick in, and you'll decide by preference rather than by the facts of the situation. That's exactly the habit to break.

• CadetYou start here. You decide by default, often without noticing.
• NavigatorYou read the situation and choose well when there's no time pressure.
• CaptainA timer is added, the perfect moment for defaults to return. Hold your reasoning and you earn your wings.

Some people move from cadet to captain quickly. Some take longer to become a navigator. Some become a navigator and find the timer makes captain hard. Every sortie you answer well builds momentum, and you can see your path at each step.

You won't practise alone

As soon as you join, you can enter the Crosswind community and talk with other product managers facing similar challenges. There are four types of cadet in the Cynefin Edition. You can compare notes with cadets of your own type or of other types, and navigators and captains offer guidance where it helps.

When you complete all 12 sorties consistently at the highest difficulty, you get a LinkedIn badge to share your achievement with your peers.

Becoming a captain isn't the end. Cynefin editions also exist for Senior Product Manager, Group Product Manager and Chief Product Officer roles, so you can keep practising as you move up. You can also suggest a group session for the product managers in your organisation; Crosswind runs these over Zoom.